686. Why Is It So Hard to Find an NFL Quarterback?

For decades, teams have tried (and mostly failed) to predict which college quarterbacks will thrive in the pros. Is the science finally catching up? Stephen Dubner speaks with a scout, a psychologist, a data warrior, and a Hall of Fame quarterback who nobody wanted.  
 

• SOURCES:
  • Scott Goldman, sports psychologist, owner of the Athletic Intelligence Quotient.
  • Dan Hatman, director of scouting development at the Scouting Academy.
  • Stephen Smith, founder and C.E.O. of Kitman Labs.
  • Kurt Warner, Hall-of-Fame quarterback, N.F.L. Network analyst.

 

• RESOURCES:
  • "Head in the game: the impact of cognitive abilities on performance of National Football League quarterbacks," by R. Thomas Boone, Nicholas Zambrotta, Andrew Manocchio, and James Bowman (Frontiers in Psychology, 2025).
  • "The Quarterback Prediction Problem: Forecasting the Performance of College Quarterbacks Selected in the NFL Draft," by Julian Wolfson, Vittorio Addona, Robert Schmicker (Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2011).

 

• EXTRAS:
  • "The Merger You Never Knew You Wanted," by Freakonomics Radio (2025).
  • "The Rooney Rule," series by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

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