FiveThirtyEight Politics

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.


  • A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump

    Jul 30 2020

    Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.

  • Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away

    Jul 27 2020

    According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.

  • The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election

    Jul 23 2020

    In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?

  • There Aren't Secret Trump Voters

    Jul 20 2020

    A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.

  • White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality

    Jul 16 2020

    In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.

  • COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?

    Jul 13 2020

    The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."

  • Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term

    Jul 09 2020

    FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.

  • How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds

    Jul 06 2020

    The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.

  • How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party

    Jul 02 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."

  • Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

    Jun 29 2020

    The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.

  • New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19

    Jun 25 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic

  • Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment

    Jun 22 2020

    The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.

  • Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally

    Jun 18 2020

    In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.

  • Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?

    Jun 15 2020

    The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.

  • The Protests Appear To Be Working

    Jun 12 2020

    New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.

  • Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises

    Jun 08 2020

    The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.

  • Protests, Then And Now

    Jun 04 2020

    Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.

  • The Data Behind Police Violence

    Jun 01 2020

    Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.

  • What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him

    May 28 2020

    Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.

  • Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases

    May 26 2020

    The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.

  • One Virus, A World Full Of Responses

    May 21 2020

    The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.

  • Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?

    May 18 2020

    The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.

  • Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading

    May 14 2020

    Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done about them.

  • Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen

    May 11 2020

    The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.

  • What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means

    May 08 2020

    Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.

  • Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation

    May 04 2020

    The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.

  • The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?

    Apr 30 2020

    States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.

  • Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?

    Apr 27 2020

    The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.

  • Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19

    Apr 22 2020

    Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.

  • What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?

    Apr 20 2020

    The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.

  • How To Hold An Election During A Crisis

    Apr 16 2020

    What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?

  • Our 2020 Election Priors

    Apr 13 2020

    Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out

    Apr 08 2020

    The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.

  • Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess

    Apr 06 2020

    The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.

  • Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19

    Apr 02 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.

  • Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased

    Mar 30 2020

    The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.

  • COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart

    Mar 26 2020

    Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.

  • How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics

    Mar 23 2020

    The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.

  • How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy

    Mar 20 2020

    Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.

  • How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote

    Mar 18 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.

  • Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics

    Mar 16 2020

    The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.

  • Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic

    Mar 16 2020

    The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.

  • The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive

    Mar 11 2020

    The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.

  • Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?

    Mar 09 2020

    The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.

  • Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite

    Mar 06 2020

  • Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out

    Mar 05 2020

    The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.

  • Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?

    Mar 04 2020

    The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.

  • What's At Stake On Super Tuesday

    Mar 02 2020

    The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.

  • Biden Wins Big In South Carolina

    Mar 01 2020

    The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.

  • How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden

    Feb 26 2020

    Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.

  • What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate

    Feb 26 2020

    The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.

  • Sanders Wins Big In Nevada

    Feb 23 2020

    Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.

  • Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate

    Feb 20 2020

    In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.

  • Can Bloomberg Win?!

    Feb 18 2020

    The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.

  • Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases

    Feb 14 2020

    Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.

  • Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire

    Feb 12 2020

    The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.

  • Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview

    Feb 10 2020

    At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!

  • Live From The New Hampshire Debate

    Feb 08 2020

    The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.

  • The Results In Iowa

    Feb 06 2020

    The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.

  • Chaos In Iowa

    Feb 04 2020

    The crew discusses the lack of results in the Democratic Iowa caucuses.

  • Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses

    Feb 02 2020

    Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.

  • Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040

    Jan 31 2020

    As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.

  • When Women Run

    Jan 29 2020

    To better understand what it's really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it -- 97 women in all. These are their stories.

  • The Sanders Surge

    Jan 27 2020

    The crew assesses Bernie Sanders's improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton's new book.

  • The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?

    Jan 23 2020

    This is the third installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.

  • How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics

    Jan 22 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump's impeachment trial.

  • Live From DC: America's Favorite Sandwich

    Jan 20 2020

    In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.

  • The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform

    Jan 16 2020

    This is the second installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.

  • The Last Pre-Iowa Debate

    Jan 15 2020

    The crew reacts to the candidates' performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.

  • A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa

    Jan 13 2020

    The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker's decision to dropout and Tom Steyer's polling in NV and SC.

  • Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live

    Jan 10 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of "Model Talk" Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.

  • The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything

    Jan 09 2020

    This is the first installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.

  • How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020

    Jan 06 2020

    The team discusses the political implication's of President Trump's decision to kill Iran's Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.

  • The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019

    Dec 30 2019

    The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.

  • Eggnog And Listener Questions

    Dec 23 2019

    In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.

  • The House Impeaches President Trump

    Dec 19 2019

    President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.

  • Do Voters' Second Choices Matter?

    Dec 16 2019

    The crew previews what to expect from this week's likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters' second choices matter in the Democratic primary.

  • Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election

    Dec 13 2019

    University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.

  • The Primary According To The Early States

    Dec 09 2019

    The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight's polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump's presidency is on.

  • The Legal Experts And The Polls

    Dec 04 2019

    We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.

  • Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out

    Dec 03 2019

    The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris's decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.

  • Is The Party Deciding?

    Dec 02 2019

    The crew looks at which candidates are racking up endorsements and whether there's a meaningful trend in favor of Biden. They also take stock of Harris's troubles on the trail

  • A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving

    Nov 25 2019

    The crew discusses public opinion on impeachment and plays a Thanksgiving-inspired game.

  • What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate

    Nov 21 2019

    In a late night podcast, the crew reacts to the fifth Democratic primary debate.

  • Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies

    Nov 20 2019

    The crew reacts to U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland's testimony in the fourth day of public impeachment hearings.

  • Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call

    Nov 20 2019

    The crew discusses what went down during the third day of public impeachment hearings.

  • The Buttigieg Bump 2.0

    Nov 18 2019

    The crew discusses the latest polling out of Iowa, showing a shakeup in the race there. They also ask why education levels are such a key factor in how people vote.

  • Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks

    Nov 15 2019

    The crew reacts to the second day of public impeachment hearings.

  • Public Impeachment Hearings Begin

    Nov 13 2019

    The crew reacts to the first of many public impeachment hearings on President Trump's attempt to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival.

  • The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast

    Nov 11 2019

    The New York Times's Nate Cohn joins the podcast to discuss battleground state polling, the Electoral College and the state of the Democratic primary.

  • What The 2019 Election Results Mean

    Nov 06 2019

    FiveThirtyEight election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down the results of the 2019 elections.

  • Free-For-All In Iowa

    Nov 04 2019

    The crew previews the key elections on the ballot this Election Day and debates the role healthcare is playing in Sen. Elizabeth Warren's plateauing in national polls.

  • Exit Interview: Tim Ryan

    Oct 31 2019

    Rep. Tim Ryan exited the presidential race last week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."

  • What Should Republicans Do?

    Oct 28 2019

    The crew debates the savviest political strategy for Senate Republicans on the issue of impeachment. They also discuss the death of al-Baghdadi and disagreement in the polls.

  • The Taylor Testimony

    Oct 23 2019

    The crew discusses the significance of U.S. envoy to Ukraine William Taylor's testimony. He claimed Trump made military aid contingent on politically-motivated investigations.

  • Medicare For Fall

    Oct 21 2019

    The podcast crew discusses the politics of Medicare for All in the Democratic primary. They also look at the latest impeachment polling.

  • Warren In The Hot Seat

    Oct 16 2019

    The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.

  • What To Look For In The 4th Debate

    Oct 14 2019

    The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.

  • Impeachment 101

    Oct 10 2019

    Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.

  • Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?

    Oct 07 2019

    The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties' strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.

  • How TV's Evolution Explains Our Politics

    Oct 03 2019

    New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.

  • Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular

    Sep 30 2019

    The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.

  • The Whistleblower's Complaint

    Sep 26 2019

    It's only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump's Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower's complaint and more.

  • What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean

    Sep 24 2019

    The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi's decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How'd we get here, and what might come next?

  • Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?

    Sep 23 2019

    The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.

  • We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport

    Sep 19 2019

    Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he'd record a podcast and he obliged.

  • The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries

    Sep 16 2019

    The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump's electoral strengths and weaknesses.

  • What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate

    Sep 13 2019

    The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.

  • How To Own The Debate

    Sep 09 2019

    The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.

  • The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States

    Sep 05 2019

    A North Carolina court panel threw out the state's legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.

  • And Then There Were Ten

    Sep 03 2019

    The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?

  • A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?

    Aug 29 2019

    Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.

  • The Winnowing Begins

    Aug 26 2019

    The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.

  • The 2019 Elections

    Aug 22 2019

    FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.

  • Elizabeth Warren's Comeback

    Aug 19 2019

    The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what's changed since the El Paso shooting.

  • Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk

    Aug 15 2019

    International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump's trade war with China.

  • How Much Does Iowa Matter?

    Aug 12 2019

    Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

  • "The Best Pollster In Politics"

    Aug 08 2019

    Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.

  • Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?

    Aug 05 2019

    The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.

  • Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates

    Aug 02 2019

    The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.

  • Democrats Battle It Out

    Jul 31 2019

    The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.

  • Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?

    Jul 29 2019

    The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.

  • Mueller Talks

    Jul 24 2019

    After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.

  • Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy

    Jul 22 2019

    The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.

  • Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?

    Jul 18 2019

    The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state's political trends and what they mean for 2020.

  • Trump's Racist Tweets

    Jul 15 2019

    The podcast team discusses Trump's tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.

  • Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell

    Jul 11 2019

    Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."

  • Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?

    Jul 08 2019

    The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash's decision to leave the GOP.

  • The Verdict On The Debates

    Jul 01 2019

    The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.

  • Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters.

    Jun 28 2019

    The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.

  • What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate

    Jun 27 2019

    The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.

  • Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary

    Jun 24 2019

    The crew re-assesses the significance of "lanes" in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump's Iran strategy.

  • What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions

    Jun 21 2019

    Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.

  • Who Is Persuadable In 2020?

    Jun 17 2019

    As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.

  • A Republican Strategist's Guide To 2020

    Jun 13 2019

    Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, "What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election."

  • Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?

    Jun 10 2019

    The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren's breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.

  • The D.C. Statehood Episode

    Jun 06 2019

    Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats' efforts to make D.C. the nation's 51st state.

  • Are Voters Sexist?

    Jun 03 2019

    The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.

  • Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?

    May 31 2019

    University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.

  • Is Pelosi's Trump Strategy Working?

    May 28 2019

    The crew discusses whether last week's back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.

  • What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump's Falsehoods

    May 23 2019

    The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.

  • Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?

    May 20 2019

    The politics team examines Bill de Blasio's theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.

  • Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions

    May 16 2019

    Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It's part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.

  • The Politics Of Impeaching Trump

    May 13 2019

    The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.

  • Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?

    May 09 2019

    In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.

  • Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?

    May 07 2019

    The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.

  • Mueller's Letter To Barr

    May 01 2019

    Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he'd characterized the report's findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.

  • Peto Buttichar 2020

    Apr 29 2019

    The crew discusses the Democratic Party's reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don't have more crossover support.

  • How Joe Biden Could Win

    Apr 25 2019

    Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.

  • We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?

    Apr 22 2019

    The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.

  • Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report

    Apr 18 2019

    The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.

  • The State Of The Democratic Primary

    Apr 15 2019

    As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.

  • How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?

    Apr 11 2019

    Our "Model Talk" series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight's forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!

  • Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?

    Apr 08 2019

    The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.

  • The Electoral College Episode

    Apr 04 2019

    Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.

  • What Will Biden Do?

    Apr 01 2019

    Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?

  • Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?

    Mar 28 2019

    Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.

  • Life After The Mueller Report

    Mar 25 2019

    The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.

  • Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report

    Mar 22 2019

    In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.

  • Live From NY: It's A 2020 Draft!

    Mar 21 2019

    In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play "Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?"

  • Ranking 2020 Rollouts

    Mar 18 2019

    The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.

  • The Moment Of Truth For Brexit

    Mar 15 2019

    David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British "Talking Politics" podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.

  • How Beto O'Rourke Could Win

    Mar 14 2019

    Former El Paso congressman Beto O'Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win -- or lose -- the Democratic primary.

  • How Divided Are Democrats?

    Mar 11 2019

    The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.

  • Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell

    Mar 07 2019

    Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?

  • Should We Cancel The Electoral College?

    Mar 04 2019

    The podcast crew discusses the latest candidate announcements, whether party endorsements matter, and the merits of the Electoral College.

  • What We Learned From Cohen's Testimony

    Feb 28 2019

    The podcast team reacts to a day of testimony from President Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.

  • Our Best (Or Worst) Show

    Feb 25 2019

    The podcast crew discusses absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina and the threat of a primary challenge to Trump. They also play a round of "Guess What Americans Think."

  • All The President's Investigations

    Feb 22 2019

    The word is that Mueller will wrap up his investigation next week. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux shares an overview of the legal troubles that will continue to follow the president.

  • How Bernie Sanders Could Win

    Feb 19 2019

    Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for president. The team describes both his path to success and failure in the primary. They also follow up on Trump's emergency declaration.

  • National Emergency Podcast

    Feb 14 2019

    The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox's Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.

  • How Amy Klobuchar Could Win

    Feb 11 2019

    The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.

  • The Mess In Virginia

    Feb 07 2019

    Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state -- the governor, lt. governor and AG.

  • The Politics Of Taxing The Rich

    Feb 04 2019

    Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker's path to the nomination.

  • The Perot Effect

    Feb 02 2019

    What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.

  • Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?

    Jan 31 2019

    In light of Howard Schultz's possible presidential run as a "centrist independent," the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.

  • Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements)

    Jan 28 2019

    The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders -- Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.

  • What To Make Of Roger Stone's Indictment

    Jan 25 2019

    In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone's indictment.

  • How Kamala Harris Could Win

    Jan 22 2019

    The crew analyzes what Harris's path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller's statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.

  • Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity

    Jan 18 2019

    In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.

  • How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win

    Jan 16 2019

    New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver's audio may be a bit unclear. He says, "It's not that logical because, number one, a lot of Democrats are concerned about senators who allegedly grope people."

  • How Julian Castro Could Win

    Jan 14 2019

    The crew discusses what Julian Castro's path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.

  • Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?

    Jan 10 2019

    Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.

  • How Elizabeth Warren Could Win

    Jan 07 2019

    The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning -- and losing -- the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.

  • The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona

    Dec 31 2018

    In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.

  • Our 2018 Politics Awards

    Dec 24 2018

    The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.

  • Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)

    Dec 21 2018

    In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's departure and the looming government shutdown.

  • Should Democrats Play Dirty?

    Dec 17 2018

    Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently

  • The Brexit Episode

    Dec 13 2018

    Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.

  • Trump's Turbulent Week

    Dec 10 2018

    President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.

  • Something Is Fishy In North Carolina

    Dec 03 2018

    The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.

  • Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller

    Nov 29 2018

    In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.

  • This Is Mueller Talk!

    Nov 29 2018

    After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.

  • Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?

    Nov 26 2018

    The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.

  • Will Pelosi Be Replaced?

    Nov 19 2018

    The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.

  • How Our Model Did

    Nov 15 2018

    In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.

  • A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live!

    Nov 12 2018

    Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.

  • Midterms Review

    Nov 08 2018

    The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.

  • Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out

    Nov 07 2018

    President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.

  • Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative

    Nov 07 2018

    Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.