The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox's Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.
The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.
Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state -- the governor, lt. governor and AG.
Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker's path to the nomination.
What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.
In light of Howard Schultz's possible presidential run as a "centrist independent," the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.
The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders -- Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.
In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone's indictment.
The crew analyzes what Harris's path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller's statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.
In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver's audio may be a bit unclear. He says, "It's not that logical because, number one, a lot of Democrats are concerned about senators who allegedly grope people."
The crew discusses what Julian Castro's path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.
Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.
The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning -- and losing -- the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.
In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.
The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.
In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's departure and the looming government shutdown.
Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently
Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.
We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump's appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.
There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties' priorities.
New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.
House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.
The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.
At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.
The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh's all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.
Galen Druke heads to a traditionally Republican district in Houston, Texas that swung 23 points towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is rated as a toss-up in 2018.
The first batch of polls is out since Judge Brett Kavanaugh's testimony last Thursday. The crew discusses how the public is reacting.
The podcast crew reacts to Senator Jeff Flake's call for an FBI investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh.
The podcast team reacts to the Judiciary Committee testimony of Professor Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
In a special live taping of the podcast, the crew discusses the future of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
In this installment of Model Talk Nate discusses how unexpected events affect the model and answers listener questions about how long the model is and where it's stored.
The crew discusses the political response to an accusation from a woman who says Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in high school.
President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts to the news.
In the latest installment of Model Talk, Nate discusses why the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast favors Republicans.
The crew reacts to the latest news about the inner workings of the Trump administration and explores the Upshot's foray into live polling.
After three days of Supreme Court nomination hearings, Perry Bacon Jr. and Oliver Roeder discuss what, if anything, they learned.
The crew is using the Labor Day holiday to take a step back from the news of the moment and assess how President Trump is faring after more than a year and a half in office.
In this episode of Model Talk, Nate talks about debugging the model and answers questions from listeners, including one surprise listener by the name of Rush.
The crew discusses the legacy of Senator John McCain. They also debate how Democrats should approach the question of impeachment.
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari discuss what "electability" means and consider whether it's a useful term for assessing candidates.
The podcast crew reacts to a guilty plea from Michael Cohen and a guilty verdict for Paul Manafort on the same day.
The crew discusses their takeaways from the new 2018 House forecast. They also sort through new data on how Trump voters' views have evolved or not since 2016.
In the heat of the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, this podcast might have been lost forever. The team reacts to a major primary upset in New York's 14th district.
The podcast team reacts to the news that Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court.
The team discusses the continuing fallout from Trump's policy of separating families that illegally cross the border. They also ask why there aren't more GOP women in Congress
FiveThirtyEight partnered with WNYC's Death, Sex & Money podcast to do a survey asking what men think about being a man in 2018.
The team discusses the separation of children and parents at the border and the role that immigration plays in the GOP. They also react to a SCOTUS decision on gerrymandering.
Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss the political implications of the inspector general's report on the 2016 FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton.
Eight states are holding primary contests on Tuesday, including California, where the top two primary system could create some interesting results.
FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster ratings for the first time since before the 2016 election. Nate and Galen discuss the state of polling and what to expect in 2018.
Democrats' advantage in generic ballot polling has declined in recent months. The crew debates what that tells us about their prospects this fall.
The team takes stock of where the Mueller probe stands one year on. They also discuss Democrats' debate over reducing the role of superdelegates in presidential primaries.
Does the fault line in the Democratic Party really run through Texas's 7th district? Clare and Galen compare the candidates in what's become a contentious Democratic primary.
The team discusses partisanship in the first of a series of conversations about the midterms called "Priors." They also look at Americans' views of Trump's foreign policy.
Nate Silver and Clare Malone sit down Amy Chozick, the author of "Chasing Hillary: Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling."
Tuesday is the fist big primary Election Day of the 2018 midterms. The team discusses the most important races to watch. They also debate whether Trump deserves more credit.
President Trump's new lawyer Rudy Giuliani contradicted the president about payments to Stormy Daniels during a two-day long media rampage.
Joe Manchin is one of ten Democrats defending a Senate seat in a state Trump won. The team looks at the Republicans vying to challenge him in West Virginia.
The team debates whether the Texas Senate race is actually winnable for the Democrat. They also discuss the special election in Arizona and how to responsibly cover polls.
The crew debates the significance of former FBI Director James Comey's new tell-all book. They also look at public opinion of the recent U.S. airstrikes in Syria.
House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Wednesday morning that he will not seek reelection in 2018. Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari react to the news.
The team describes what a nightmare elections hack scenario would look like, based on reporting by Clare Malone. They also discuss the continuous scandals at the EPA.
The podcast crew responds to the news that the FBI raided the office and home of President Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen.
The team plays a round of "FiveThirtyEight Family Feud" to help determine Trump's strengths and weakness. They also debate the merits of census's new citizenship question.
Clare Malone and Jody Avirgan speak with Daniel Kreiss of UNC about the use of FB data in the 2016 election -- and beyond. Listen to the history of data and politics series here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/political-data
The team debates how to cover the alleged coverup and affair between Stormy Daniels and President Trump. They also dive into new data showing Americans are as divided as ever.
President Trump tore into the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller this weekend. The team discusses what would happen if Trump fired Mueller.
Democrat Conor Lamb looks poised to win in a Pennsylvania district that voted for Trump by 20 points. The podcast team discusses what the results mean for the midterms.
President Trump announced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's firing on twitter Tuesday morning. The podcast team reacts.
The crew discusses the candidates and environment heading into Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district - a district that Trump won by 20 points.
The team makes sense of a week of chaos at the White House and what it says about Trump's decision making. They also discuss how academics rank presidential achievement.
The team discusses whether the high school shooting in Parkland, FL is a turning point in the gun debate. They also play a round of political "would you rather?"
This episode is dedicated entirely to discussing the gun debate. The crew looks at public opinion, political strategy and what is likely to happen next.
The team responds to news that 13 Russians and 3 companies have been indicted in the special counsel investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
The crew debates why Nancy Pelosi is such a target for Republican attacks and whether those attacks will actually move voters.
The team debates whether the Nunes memo was much ado about nothing, and discusses Trump's effect on the Republican Party.
One year in, the day before Trump's first (proper) State Of The Union address, we revisit the "14 Paths" and discuss what version of President Trump we ended up with.
The Senate voted to end the shutdown less than three days after it began. Did Democrats get what they wanted? The team also discusses the uptick in Trump's approval rating.
The politics team discusses the repercussions of the government shutdown after the Senate failed to pass a stopgap spending bill Friday night.
With a government shutdown looming, Democrats and Republicans have hit an impasse over immigration policy. The crew discusses what's at stake.
In the final episode of our gerrymandering series we consider some more radical electoral reforms and look back on the lessons we've learned.
The crew discusses the possibility of an Oprah presidential run, a new book about the Trump White House and Trump's behavior towards North Korea.
California took significant steps to try to rid redistricting of partisan politics. Politicians still sought to influence the process. Did they succeed?
2018 is here! We discuss our political reporting resolutions -- both for ourselves and the media in general -- as we head into a big new year.
The crew throws caution to the wind and debates which Democrats are best positioned to do well in the 2020 presidential primary.
The number of competitive congressional elections has fallen dramatically in recent decades. Arizona tried to combat that trend.
The politics team sorts through the hot takes from last week's Senate election in Alabama. They also discuss the political implications of the proposed GOP tax overhaul.
A decades long debate has raged over how to ensure minorities have a voice in America. In the third installment of our series, we look at racial gerrymandering.
Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama in a quarter century. The team discusses the factors that converged to make that possible.
The Alabama special Senate election is Tuesday. The polls have varied significantly in an election where turnout is hard to predict. The team weighs in on what to expect.
Is partisan gerrymandering illegal? In the second installment of our gerrymandering series we look at a Supreme Court case that could reshape how we draw political boundaries.
The Senate passed a tax overhaul bill Friday night. The team weighs the political and policy implications and follow up on the fallout from Michael Flynn's guilty plea.
A quick conversation in reaction the big news that Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations with Russian officials.
What is gerrymandering? This is the first episode in a six-part series exploring the effects of gerrymandering and how reformers hope to change the system.
Lawmakers return to Washington under pressure to confront sexual harassment by their own ranks. The podcast team also looks at the latest in the Alabama special Senate race.
The Alabama special Senate race is now tied, after numerous accusation that Republican Roy Moore molested and assaulted teenage girls. The podcast team reacts.
Leeann Tweeden accused Senator Al Franken of kissing and groping her without her consent while on a USO tour in the Middle East. The podcast team reacts.
Five women have accused Roy Moore, Republican candidate for Senate from Alabama, of sexual misconduct. The team assesses how this will affect the final month of the campaign.
A year after the 2016 election, Nate & Micah sit down to discuss what it was like to cover the race - from the mistakes FiveThirtyEight made to the emotions of the final weeks
The podcast team responds to strong showing by Democrats across the board on Election Day 2017
Will Democrats begin their comeback on Election Day 2017? The podcast team shares advice on which races to watch and what the margins mean.
Major figures in political journalism are alleged to have been serial sexual harassers. What does it mean to have those men in charge of the way political news gets made?
Ex-chairman of the Trump campaign Paul Manafort was indicted along with two other campaign aides as part of Bob Mueller's special investigation. The team weighs in.
GOP Sen. Jeff Flake from Arizona, a repeated Trump critic, announced he will not seek reelection in 2018. The podcast team discusses what that means for Arizona and the GOP.
The 2017 elections are not far off. The team looks at the candidates and polling in the Virginia governor's race and Alabama's special Senate race.
Steve Bannon declared "war" on the GOP establishment at the Values Voter Summit last week. The podcast team discusses what that will mean for the 2018 midterms.
GOP Senator Corker and President Trump went at each other over the weekend. The podcast weighs in on how Corker's criticism of Trump could affect GOP politics.
The Trump administration is facing multiple crises: a mass shooting in Las Vegas, Puerto Rico recovering from hurricane Maria and rising tensions with North Korea.
The Supreme Court is hearing a partisan gerrymandering case that could reshape how our democracy works. FiveThirtyEight brings you a deep dive into what is at stake.
Over the weekend, President Trump targeted the NFL for player protests and was rebuked by owners, players and the players union. The podcast team weighs in.
Sen. McCain is a no on the latest ACA repeal effort. The team debates what comes next.
As the Democratic Party increasingly embraces single payer healthcare and Clinton weighs in on her primary race against Sanders, the team discusses where the party is headed.
Hillary Clinton is releasing a book this week chronicling what went wrong during her 2016 campaign from her perspective. The podcast team sizes up her assessment.
The White House has decided to end the DACA program. The podcast team weighs in on how voters view DACA and what Congress's options are for replacing it.
Amid historic flooding in East Texas, the team talks about the political challenges natural disasters can pose to local officials, governors and the president.
The team talks to political science professor Vincent Hutchings about the way Donald Trump spoke about race in the aftermath of Charlottesville.
In this emergency podcast, the team talks about what Steve Bannon's departure from the White House means for the people who remain.
President Trump did not condemn white supremacy by name in his initial response to the violence in Charlottesville. The team discusses the reasons and repercussions.
The team weighs the significance of Bob Mueller empaneling a grand jury in the Russia investigation. They also look at persisting rifts in the Democratic Party.
A break from politics with an excerpt of a new audio documentary from 30 for 30 Podcasts, which our very own Jody Avirgan heads up. We present "The Fighter Inside," reported by Andrew Mambo. More at 30for30podcasts.com
The team breaks down the latest White House staffing shakeups and asks how Chief of Staff John Kelly might correct course amid the chaos.
The podcast team breaks down the final votes and weighs who is most responsible for the Republican failure: Trump, McConnell or Ryan.
The podcast team considers the options for Senate Republicans as they face a last ditch effort to repeal the ACA. Plus, how different would a Clinton presidency have been?
The podcast team digests the Senate's latest health care bill and debates which path Trump's presidency is on six months in.
The podcast team reacts to emails in which Donald Trump Jr. accepts a meeting with a Kremlin-linked lawyer offering dirt on Hillary Clinton.
The crew discusses the Trump administration's request for voter data and why states are pushing back. Plus, with another good jobs report, can Trump claim to own the economy?
Ahead of the G20 summit, the podcast team looks at changes in global perceptions of American leadership since Trump took office.
The podcast team discusses the policies in the Senate GOP health care bill and debates whether it's likely to pass.
The podcast team responds to the results of the special elections in Georgia's 6th district and South Carolina's 5th district.
The special election in Georgia's 6th district has become the most expensive House election in American history. The podcast team debates how much it matters.
The podcast team responds to new reports that President Trump is under FBI investigation for obstruction of justice.
The podcast team debates who actually makes up the base in each party and what role they will play in upcoming elections.
No party won a majority in the U.K. election, resulting in a hung parliament. The podcast team reacts.
The podcast team reacts to former FBI Director James Comey's testimony about the events that lead up to his firing by President Trump.
The podcast team discusses former FBI Director James Comey's prepared testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
The podcast team debates the political savvy of Trump's exit from the Paris climate agreement. Nate takes a look at what's going on in the crazy world of UK elections polls.
The podcast team debates whether a Democratic loss in Montana's special election means challenges ahead for the party. They also parse smoke from fire in the Russia scandal.
After the appointment of a special counsel to investigate possible ties between Trump's campaign and Russia, can the White House return to business as usual?
The podcast crew assesses the fallout from reports of a memo by former FBI Director Comey in which he detailed conversations with President Trump.
The podcast team sizes up how big of a scandal Comey's firing actually is. They also discuss how the census director's departure could affect the upcoming census.
News broke late on Tuesday that President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey. We hop in the studio to discuss.
The podcast team talks to Anna Barry-Jester about how the GOP health care bill will affect real people. They also discuss the sizable polling miss in the French election.
The podcast team talks about the political implications of the AHCA health care bill passing the House.
The podcast team makes sense of Trump's one page tax plan with Ben Casselman. They also debate how the media has performed 100 days into the Trump presidency.
The team assesses Trump's legislative agenda as he ends his first 100 days. They also discuss the Earth Day protests and gauge populism's appeal after the French election.
The podcast team responds to GA-6 results live from the Comedy Cellar in New York. They also discuss upcoming European elections, play trivia and answer audience questions.
The podcast team assesses the special elections in Kansas and Georgia and takes stock of President Trump's governing style as his administration approaches 100 days.
The podcast team talks about Trump's decision to authorize airstrikes against Assad's regime in Syria and tracks who in Trump's circle is gaining and losing influence.
Our science team discusses Elizabeth Rosenthal's "An American Sickness." To catch part two, subscribe to What's The Point in iTunes or fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts
The podcast team discusses the political calculus of Democrats filibustering Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch. The crew also plays a new game: Smoke or Fire?
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live from the Treefort Fest in Boise, Idaho. The team talks to Mayor Dave Bieter, plays a round of political trivia and answers questions.
Live from the Hackfort Festival in Boise, Idaho the podcast discusses the decision by Republicans to pull their health care bill without a vote in the House.
The podcast team discusses what to expect during a week of SCOTUS confirmation hearings and debates whether Americans' views on healthcare have truly shifted.
The podcast team discusses whether the new GOP health care bill has a shot at becoming law. David Wasserman also joins the show to help measure trends in partisanship.
We bring you an excerpt from FiveThirtyEight's Hot Takedown podcast about why politics are more visible in sports today. Subscribe at fivethiryeight.com/podcasts (And if you're going to be at SXSW, come see Jody's events!)
In light of continued questions over the Trump administration's relationship with Russia, Brandon Rottinghaus joins the podcast to talk about what can make a scandal damaging.
The podcast team wraps up the Party Time series and welcomes Perry Bacon Jr. to the staff, who will be covering the Trump administration from DC.
In the final installment of "Party Time," Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with so-called "establishment" Democrats about what went wrong in 2016 and what's to come.
The Trump administration is one month old. The podcast team reflects on the biggest changes so far.
In the third installment of "Party Time," Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Bernie Sanders supporters about their vision for the future of the Democratic Party.
Nate Silver, Jody Avirgan, and Micah Cohen jump into the studio to discuss what's smoke and what's fire in the latest reporting around the Donald Trump camp's ties to Russia.
Political observers are drawing parallels between today's anti-Trump protests and the tea party protests of 2009. The podcast crew digs into whether the comparisons are apt.
In the second installment of "Party Time," Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Republicans who are wary of Trump about where the GOP is headed.
The podcast team weighs in on Trump's response after a judge temporarily blocked his travel ban. They also discuss Trump's take on negative polls and his economic plan.
In the first episode of our mini-series "Party Time," Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Trump allies about where the Republican Party is headed in the era of Trump.
The usual crew is joined by 538's Oliver Roeder (aka @ollie) to discuss the nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, his history on the bench, and what comes next.
President Trump's first week in office proved chaotic. The podcast crew looks for a strategy behind the chaos and talks to Meenekshi Bose about the shakeup in NSC membership.
Donald Trump's first few days as president were marked by executive orders, "alternative facts" and mass protests. Julia Azari and Erica Chenoweth help make sense of it.
President-elect Trump is waging a new battle against polling, arguing his approval rating is "rigged." We break down the difference between approval rating and horserace polls
The podcast team looks at the budding relationship between the Trump administration and the U.S. Senate. Confirmation hearings begin this week and ACA debate is underway.
A special episode on government data and the coming Trump administration. Featuring our usual crew and 538's Ben Casselman, Maggie Koerth-Baker, and Carl Bialik.
Audio from our live show at LA's Crest Theater this summer discussing the use of polling in The West Wing. Subscribe to TWWW here! http://thewestwingweekly.com
The podcast takes a moment to look back on 2016. They also discuss the latest from North Carolina's legislature and assess the future of Midwest electoral politics.
The podcast crew discusses the latest news on Russia's interference in the presidential election and Amy Walter joins the show to talk about "draining the swamp."
Nate and Harry report on a post-election forum where it was clear that emotions are still very raw. Then, economics editor Ben Casselman discusses Trump's new deals.
The team discusses whether Jill Stein's push for ballot recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania defies norms. They also debate how to cover Trump's tweets.
Julia Azari joins the show to talk about the historical precedent for Trump's administration thus far. Clare Malone talks about her latest reporting on trust in institutions.
The podcast crew uses new data to assess the conventional wisdom about the election and looks at President-elect Trump's first decisions in his new role.
Good Use Of Polling Or Bad Use Of Polling: The Model