FiveThirtyEight Politics

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.


  • Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP?

    Mar 01 2021

    The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster.

  • What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs

    Feb 25 2021

    Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.

  • Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular

    Feb 23 2021

    The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling.

  • How The Crisis In Texas Happened

    Feb 18 2021

    Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises.

  • Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump

    Feb 16 2021

    Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also dislodge New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the nation. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial reca...more

  • The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument

    Feb 12 2021

    While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications.

  • What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do

    Feb 08 2021

    Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020.

  • What Could The GOP's Future Look Like?

    Feb 04 2021

    Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought.

  • Biden's Response To The Pandemic

    Feb 01 2021

    Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President Trump's. They also discuss a recent poll showing that if Trump were to start a new "Patriot Party," it would have significant draw among Republican voters.

  • The Final Model Talk Of 2020

    Jan 28 2021

    Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for elections going forward.

  • Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another

    Jan 25 2021

    Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew also looks at the dynamics in Congress that will determine whether or not President Biden can pass his agenda.

  • The Biden Presidency Begins

    Jan 20 2021

    On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to unite the country will be successful -- and looks at what his policy plans are for his first week in office.

  • Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?

    Jan 19 2021

    This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be.

  • Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment

    Jan 14 2021

    On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, HuffPost's polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, joined Galen and Perry to discuss why the vote broke down the way it did, what the different camps within the GOP are and what happens next.

  • What Led To The Attack On The Capitol

    Jan 12 2021

    The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and Republicans about how to hold President Trump legally and/or politically accountable for the attack.

  • What Will The GOP Do Now?

    Jan 07 2021

    The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.

  • Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia

    Jan 04 2021

    The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.

  • Goodbye To 2020

    Dec 28 2020

    In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters' decision to sit out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a "good or bad use of polling."

  • Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States

    Dec 22 2020

    The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-Elect Biden is inheriting. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states and what we can learn about the Biden administration and the Democratic Party from his cabinet picks so far.

  • What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us?

    Dec 17 2020

    Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.

  • Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results

    Dec 14 2020

    The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election are not over.

  • What's The Deal With Pardons?

    Dec 10 2020

    Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.

  • The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP

    Dec 09 2020

    The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorally. They also check in on FiveThirtyEight's newly launched polling average of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia.

  • How To Make Polls Better

    Dec 04 2020

    Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them.

  • What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats?

    Nov 30 2020

    The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House.

  • Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy

    Nov 23 2020

    Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politics surrounding the current surge in coronavirus cases and ask what pollsters should do about falling response rates.

  • Will Georgia Stay Blue?

    Nov 19 2020

    Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.

  • What Divided The Electorate In 2020

    Nov 16 2020

    The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.

  • Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad

    Nov 12 2020

    In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.

  • Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand

    Nov 09 2020

    The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine news could mean for Biden's first term. 

  • Biden Is Set To Be The Next President

    Nov 07 2020

    The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.

  • Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency

    Nov 06 2020

    As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.

  • Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer

    Nov 05 2020

    After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what's left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.

  • The Election Isn't Over

    Nov 04 2020

    The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.

  • Final Reflections Before The Election

    Nov 03 2020

    In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that have defined the 2020 campaign and shares their guide of what to follow on election night.

  • What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us

    Nov 01 2020

    Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days.

  • How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic

    Oct 31 2020

    Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure to subscribe to PODCAST-19 wherever you get your podcasts.

  • Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters

    Oct 30 2020

    This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn't.)

  • The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election

    Oct 29 2020

    There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.

  • How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020

    Oct 28 2020

    In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.

  • How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election

    Oct 27 2020

    Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.

  • October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections

    Oct 26 2020

    The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.

  • Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree

    Oct 23 2020

    In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions.

  • The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here

    Oct 23 2020

    The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.

  • How Voting Is Going So Far

    Oct 21 2020

    Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.

  • The Most Competitive Races In 2020

    Oct 20 2020

    Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election.

  • Embrace The Uncertainty

    Oct 19 2020

    The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall.

  • Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased

    Oct 16 2020

    In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.

  • What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings

    Oct 15 2020

    Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court.

  • The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate

    Oct 12 2020

    The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.

  • Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens

    Oct 09 2020

    In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.

  • Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate

    Oct 08 2020

    The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.

  • What We Know About The President's Health

    Oct 05 2020

    During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the crew spoke with emergency room doctor Craig Spencer and presidential scholar Lara Brown.

  • Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19

    Oct 02 2020

    The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

  • Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?

    Oct 01 2020

    In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or restructuring the court. In this installment of the podcast, law professor Daniel Epps speaks with Galen Druke about whether the legitimacy of the Supreme Court is in jeopardy and what kinds of reforms activists and scholars are considering.

  • Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate

    Sep 30 2020

    The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.

  • The Politics Of Trump's Tax Returns

    Sep 28 2020

    The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax during ten of the previous fifteen years due to reported business losses. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew weighs the potential political implications of the report.

  • Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power

    Sep 24 2020

    In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.

  • What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat

    Sep 21 2020

    So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats over how to proceed in replacing Ginsburg.

  • Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy

    Sep 19 2020

    In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.

  • Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate

    Sep 18 2020

    FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.

  • Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters

    Sep 14 2020

    The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and if scandals still matter.

  • How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election

    Sep 11 2020

    Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.

  • The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting

    Sep 08 2020

    The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"

  • Model Talk: Trump's Electoral College Advantage

    Sep 03 2020

    Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.

  • The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha

    Aug 31 2020

    The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy and Sen. Ed Markey.

  • RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words

    Aug 28 2020

    The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

  • RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal

    Aug 27 2020

    The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

  • RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance

    Aug 26 2020

    The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

  • RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism

    Aug 25 2020

    The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

  • DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy

    Aug 21 2020

    The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

  • DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role

    Aug 20 2020

    The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

  • DNC Night 2: Democrats Aren't Sure Who They Are

    Aug 19 2020

    The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

  • DNC Night 1: Michelle Obama Rips Trump

    Aug 18 2020

    The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

  • Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live!

    Aug 12 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.

  • Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden's VP Pick

    Aug 11 2020

    The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.

  • The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes

    Aug 10 2020

    Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare Biden's current standing in the polls to Clinton's standing at this time in 2016 -- her peak of the overall campaign.

  • It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid

    Aug 03 2020

    After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.

  • A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump

    Jul 30 2020

    Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.

  • Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away

    Jul 27 2020

    According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.

  • The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election

    Jul 23 2020

    In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?

  • There Aren't Secret Trump Voters

    Jul 20 2020

    A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.

  • White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality

    Jul 16 2020

    In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.

  • COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?

    Jul 13 2020

    The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."

  • Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term

    Jul 09 2020

    FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.

  • How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds

    Jul 06 2020

    The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.

  • How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party

    Jul 02 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."

  • Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

    Jun 29 2020

    The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.

  • New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19

    Jun 25 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic

  • Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment

    Jun 22 2020

    The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.

  • Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally

    Jun 18 2020

    In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.

  • Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?

    Jun 15 2020

    The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.

  • The Protests Appear To Be Working

    Jun 12 2020

    New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.

  • Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises

    Jun 08 2020

    The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.

  • Protests, Then And Now

    Jun 04 2020

    Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.

  • The Data Behind Police Violence

    Jun 01 2020

    Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.

  • What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him

    May 28 2020

    Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.

  • Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases

    May 26 2020

    The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.

  • One Virus, A World Full Of Responses

    May 21 2020

    The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.

  • Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?

    May 18 2020

    The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.

  • Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading

    May 14 2020

    Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done about them.

  • Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen

    May 11 2020

    The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.

  • What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means

    May 08 2020

    Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.

  • Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation

    May 04 2020

    The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.

  • The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?

    Apr 30 2020

    States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.

  • Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?

    Apr 27 2020

    The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.

  • Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19

    Apr 22 2020

    Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.

  • What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?

    Apr 20 2020

    The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.

  • How To Hold An Election During A Crisis

    Apr 16 2020

    What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?

  • Our 2020 Election Priors

    Apr 13 2020

    Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out

    Apr 08 2020

    The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.

  • Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess

    Apr 06 2020

    The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.

  • Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19

    Apr 02 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.

  • Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased

    Mar 30 2020

    The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.

  • COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart

    Mar 26 2020

    Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.

  • How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics

    Mar 23 2020

    The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.

  • How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy

    Mar 20 2020

    Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.

  • How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote

    Mar 18 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.

  • Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics

    Mar 16 2020

    The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.

  • Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic

    Mar 16 2020

    The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.

  • The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive

    Mar 11 2020

    The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.

  • Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?

    Mar 09 2020

    The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.

  • Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite

    Mar 06 2020

  • Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out

    Mar 05 2020

    The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.

  • Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?

    Mar 04 2020

    The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.

  • What's At Stake On Super Tuesday

    Mar 02 2020

    The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.

  • Biden Wins Big In South Carolina

    Mar 01 2020

    The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.

  • How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden

    Feb 26 2020

    Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.

  • What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate

    Feb 26 2020

    The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.

  • Sanders Wins Big In Nevada

    Feb 23 2020

    Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.

  • Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate

    Feb 20 2020

    In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.

  • Can Bloomberg Win?!

    Feb 18 2020

    The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.

  • Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases

    Feb 14 2020

    Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.

  • Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire

    Feb 12 2020

    The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.

  • Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview

    Feb 10 2020

    At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!

  • Live From The New Hampshire Debate

    Feb 08 2020

    The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.

  • The Results In Iowa

    Feb 06 2020

    The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.

  • Chaos In Iowa

    Feb 04 2020

    The crew discusses the lack of results in the Democratic Iowa caucuses.

  • Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses

    Feb 02 2020

    Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.

  • Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040

    Jan 31 2020

    As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.

  • When Women Run

    Jan 29 2020

    To better understand what it's really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it -- 97 women in all. These are their stories.

  • The Sanders Surge

    Jan 27 2020

    The crew assesses Bernie Sanders's improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton's new book.

  • The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?

    Jan 23 2020

    This is the third installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.

  • How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics

    Jan 22 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump's impeachment trial.

  • Live From DC: America's Favorite Sandwich

    Jan 20 2020

    In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.

  • The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform

    Jan 16 2020

    This is the second installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.

  • The Last Pre-Iowa Debate

    Jan 15 2020

    The crew reacts to the candidates' performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.

  • A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa

    Jan 13 2020

    The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker's decision to dropout and Tom Steyer's polling in NV and SC.

  • Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live

    Jan 10 2020

    FiveThirtyEight's 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of "Model Talk" Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.

  • The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything

    Jan 09 2020

    This is the first installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.

  • How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020

    Jan 06 2020

    The team discusses the political implication's of President Trump's decision to kill Iran's Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.

  • The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019

    Dec 30 2019

    The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.

  • Eggnog And Listener Questions

    Dec 23 2019

    In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.

  • The House Impeaches President Trump

    Dec 19 2019

    President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.

  • Do Voters' Second Choices Matter?

    Dec 16 2019

    The crew previews what to expect from this week's likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters' second choices matter in the Democratic primary.

  • Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election

    Dec 13 2019

    University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.

  • The Primary According To The Early States

    Dec 09 2019

    The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight's polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump's presidency is on.

  • The Legal Experts And The Polls

    Dec 04 2019

    We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.

  • Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out

    Dec 03 2019

    The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris's decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.

  • Is The Party Deciding?

    Dec 02 2019

    The crew looks at which candidates are racking up endorsements and whether there's a meaningful trend in favor of Biden. They also take stock of Harris's troubles on the trail

  • A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving

    Nov 25 2019

    The crew discusses public opinion on impeachment and plays a Thanksgiving-inspired game.

  • What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate

    Nov 21 2019

    In a late night podcast, the crew reacts to the fifth Democratic primary debate.

  • Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies

    Nov 20 2019

    The crew reacts to U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland's testimony in the fourth day of public impeachment hearings.

  • Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call

    Nov 20 2019

    The crew discusses what went down during the third day of public impeachment hearings.

  • The Buttigieg Bump 2.0

    Nov 18 2019

    The crew discusses the latest polling out of Iowa, showing a shakeup in the race there. They also ask why education levels are such a key factor in how people vote.

  • Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks

    Nov 15 2019

    The crew reacts to the second day of public impeachment hearings.

  • Public Impeachment Hearings Begin

    Nov 13 2019

    The crew reacts to the first of many public impeachment hearings on President Trump's attempt to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival.

  • The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast

    Nov 11 2019

    The New York Times's Nate Cohn joins the podcast to discuss battleground state polling, the Electoral College and the state of the Democratic primary.

  • What The 2019 Election Results Mean

    Nov 06 2019

    FiveThirtyEight election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down the results of the 2019 elections.

  • Free-For-All In Iowa

    Nov 04 2019

    The crew previews the key elections on the ballot this Election Day and debates the role healthcare is playing in Sen. Elizabeth Warren's plateauing in national polls.

  • Exit Interview: Tim Ryan

    Oct 31 2019

    Rep. Tim Ryan exited the presidential race last week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."

  • What Should Republicans Do?

    Oct 28 2019

    The crew debates the savviest political strategy for Senate Republicans on the issue of impeachment. They also discuss the death of al-Baghdadi and disagreement in the polls.

  • The Taylor Testimony

    Oct 23 2019

    The crew discusses the significance of U.S. envoy to Ukraine William Taylor's testimony. He claimed Trump made military aid contingent on politically-motivated investigations.

  • Medicare For Fall

    Oct 21 2019

    The podcast crew discusses the politics of Medicare for All in the Democratic primary. They also look at the latest impeachment polling.

  • Warren In The Hot Seat

    Oct 16 2019

    The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.

  • What To Look For In The 4th Debate

    Oct 14 2019

    The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.

  • Impeachment 101

    Oct 10 2019

    Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.

  • Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?

    Oct 07 2019

    The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties' strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.

  • How TV's Evolution Explains Our Politics

    Oct 03 2019

    New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.

  • Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular

    Sep 30 2019

    The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.

  • The Whistleblower's Complaint

    Sep 26 2019

    It's only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump's Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower's complaint and more.

  • What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean

    Sep 24 2019

    The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi's decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How'd we get here, and what might come next?

  • Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?

    Sep 23 2019

    The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.

  • We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport

    Sep 19 2019

    Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he'd record a podcast and he obliged.

  • The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries

    Sep 16 2019

    The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump's electoral strengths and weaknesses.

  • What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate

    Sep 13 2019

    The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.

  • How To Own The Debate

    Sep 09 2019

    The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.

  • The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States

    Sep 05 2019

    A North Carolina court panel threw out the state's legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.

  • And Then There Were Ten

    Sep 03 2019

    The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?

  • A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?

    Aug 29 2019

    Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.

  • The Winnowing Begins

    Aug 26 2019

    The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.

  • The 2019 Elections

    Aug 22 2019

    FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.

  • Elizabeth Warren's Comeback

    Aug 19 2019

    The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what's changed since the El Paso shooting.

  • Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk

    Aug 15 2019

    International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump's trade war with China.

  • How Much Does Iowa Matter?

    Aug 12 2019

    Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

  • "The Best Pollster In Politics"

    Aug 08 2019

    Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.

  • Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?

    Aug 05 2019

    The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.

  • Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates

    Aug 02 2019

    The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.

  • Democrats Battle It Out

    Jul 31 2019

    The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.

  • Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?

    Jul 29 2019

    The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.