FiveThirtyEight Politics

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.


  • Warren In The Hot Seat

    Oct 16 2019

    The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.

  • What To Look For In The 4th Debate

    Oct 14 2019

    The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.

  • Impeachment 101

    Oct 10 2019

    Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.

  • Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?

    Oct 07 2019

    The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties' strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.

  • How TV's Evolution Explains Our Politics

    Oct 03 2019

    New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.

  • Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular

    Sep 30 2019

    The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.

  • The Whistleblower's Complaint

    Sep 26 2019

    It's only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump's Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower's complaint and more.

  • What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean

    Sep 24 2019

    The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi's decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How'd we get here, and what might come next?

  • Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?

    Sep 23 2019

    The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.

  • We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport

    Sep 19 2019

    Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he'd record a podcast and he obliged.

  • The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries

    Sep 16 2019

    The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump's electoral strengths and weaknesses.

  • What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate

    Sep 13 2019

    The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.

  • How To Own The Debate

    Sep 09 2019

    The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.

  • The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States

    Sep 05 2019

    A North Carolina court panel threw out the state's legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.

  • And Then There Were Ten

    Sep 03 2019

    The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?

  • A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?

    Aug 29 2019

    Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.

  • The Winnowing Begins

    Aug 26 2019

    The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.

  • The 2019 Elections

    Aug 22 2019

    FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.

  • Elizabeth Warren's Comeback

    Aug 19 2019

    The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what's changed since the El Paso shooting.

  • Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk

    Aug 15 2019

    International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump's trade war with China.

  • How Much Does Iowa Matter?

    Aug 12 2019

    Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

  • "The Best Pollster In Politics"

    Aug 08 2019

    Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.

  • Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?

    Aug 05 2019

    The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.

  • Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates

    Aug 02 2019

    The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.

  • Democrats Battle It Out

    Jul 31 2019

    The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.

  • Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?

    Jul 29 2019

    The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.

  • Mueller Talks

    Jul 24 2019

    After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.

  • Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy

    Jul 22 2019

    The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.

  • Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?

    Jul 18 2019

    The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state's political trends and what they mean for 2020.

  • Trump's Racist Tweets

    Jul 15 2019

    The podcast team discusses Trump's tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.

  • Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell

    Jul 11 2019

    Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."

  • Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?

    Jul 08 2019

    The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash's decision to leave the GOP.

  • The Verdict On The Debates

    Jul 01 2019

    The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.

  • Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters.

    Jun 28 2019

    The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.

  • What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate

    Jun 27 2019

    The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.

  • Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary

    Jun 24 2019

    The crew re-assesses the significance of "lanes" in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump's Iran strategy.

  • What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions

    Jun 21 2019

    Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.

  • Who Is Persuadable In 2020?

    Jun 17 2019

    As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.

  • A Republican Strategist's Guide To 2020

    Jun 13 2019

    Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, "What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election."

  • Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?

    Jun 10 2019

    The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren's breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.

  • The D.C. Statehood Episode

    Jun 06 2019

    Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats' efforts to make D.C. the nation's 51st state.

  • Are Voters Sexist?

    Jun 03 2019

    The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.

  • Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?

    May 31 2019

    University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.

  • Is Pelosi's Trump Strategy Working?

    May 28 2019

    The crew discusses whether last week's back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.

  • What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump's Falsehoods

    May 23 2019

    The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.

  • Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?

    May 20 2019

    The politics team examines Bill de Blasio's theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.

  • Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions

    May 16 2019

    Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It's part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.

  • The Politics Of Impeaching Trump

    May 13 2019

    The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.

  • Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?

    May 09 2019

    In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.

  • Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?

    May 07 2019

    The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.

  • Mueller's Letter To Barr

    May 01 2019

    Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he'd characterized the report's findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.

  • Peto Buttichar 2020

    Apr 29 2019

    The crew discusses the Democratic Party's reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don't have more crossover support.

  • How Joe Biden Could Win

    Apr 25 2019

    Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.

  • We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?

    Apr 22 2019

    The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.

  • Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report

    Apr 18 2019

    The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.

  • The State Of The Democratic Primary

    Apr 15 2019

    As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.

  • How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?

    Apr 11 2019

    Our "Model Talk" series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight's forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!

  • Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?

    Apr 08 2019

    The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.

  • The Electoral College Episode

    Apr 04 2019

    Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.

  • What Will Biden Do?

    Apr 01 2019

    Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?

  • Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?

    Mar 28 2019

    Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.

  • Life After The Mueller Report

    Mar 25 2019

    The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.

  • Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report

    Mar 22 2019

    In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.

  • Live From NY: It's A 2020 Draft!

    Mar 21 2019

    In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play "Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?"

  • Ranking 2020 Rollouts

    Mar 18 2019

    The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.

  • The Moment Of Truth For Brexit

    Mar 15 2019

    David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British "Talking Politics" podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.

  • How Beto O'Rourke Could Win

    Mar 14 2019

    Former El Paso congressman Beto O'Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win -- or lose -- the Democratic primary.

  • How Divided Are Democrats?

    Mar 11 2019

    The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.

  • Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell

    Mar 07 2019

    Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?

  • Should We Cancel The Electoral College?

    Mar 04 2019

    The podcast crew discusses the latest candidate announcements, whether party endorsements matter, and the merits of the Electoral College.

  • What We Learned From Cohen's Testimony

    Feb 28 2019

    The podcast team reacts to a day of testimony from President Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.

  • Our Best (Or Worst) Show

    Feb 25 2019

    The podcast crew discusses absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina and the threat of a primary challenge to Trump. They also play a round of "Guess What Americans Think."

  • All The President's Investigations

    Feb 22 2019

    The word is that Mueller will wrap up his investigation next week. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux shares an overview of the legal troubles that will continue to follow the president.

  • How Bernie Sanders Could Win

    Feb 19 2019

    Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for president. The team describes both his path to success and failure in the primary. They also follow up on Trump's emergency declaration.

  • National Emergency Podcast

    Feb 14 2019

    The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox's Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.

  • How Amy Klobuchar Could Win

    Feb 11 2019

    The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.

  • The Mess In Virginia

    Feb 07 2019

    Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state -- the governor, lt. governor and AG.

  • The Politics Of Taxing The Rich

    Feb 04 2019

    Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker's path to the nomination.

  • The Perot Effect

    Feb 02 2019

    What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.

  • Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?

    Jan 31 2019

    In light of Howard Schultz's possible presidential run as a "centrist independent," the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.

  • Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements)

    Jan 28 2019

    The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders -- Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.

  • What To Make Of Roger Stone's Indictment

    Jan 25 2019

    In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone's indictment.

  • How Kamala Harris Could Win

    Jan 22 2019

    The crew analyzes what Harris's path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller's statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.

  • Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity

    Jan 18 2019

    In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.

  • How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win

    Jan 16 2019

    New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver's audio may be a bit unclear. He says, "It's not that logical because, number one, a lot of Democrats are concerned about senators who allegedly grope people."

  • How Julian Castro Could Win

    Jan 14 2019

    The crew discusses what Julian Castro's path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.

  • Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?

    Jan 10 2019

    Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.

  • How Elizabeth Warren Could Win

    Jan 07 2019

    The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning -- and losing -- the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.

  • The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona

    Dec 31 2018

    In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.

  • Our 2018 Politics Awards

    Dec 24 2018

    The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.

  • Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)

    Dec 21 2018

    In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's departure and the looming government shutdown.

  • Should Democrats Play Dirty?

    Dec 17 2018

    Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently

  • The Brexit Episode

    Dec 13 2018

    Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.

  • Trump's Turbulent Week

    Dec 10 2018

    President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.

  • Something Is Fishy In North Carolina

    Dec 03 2018

    The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.

  • Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller

    Nov 29 2018

    In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.

  • This Is Mueller Talk!

    Nov 29 2018

    After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.

  • Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?

    Nov 26 2018

    The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.

  • Will Pelosi Be Replaced?

    Nov 19 2018

    The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.

  • How Our Model Did

    Nov 15 2018

    In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.

  • A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live!

    Nov 12 2018

    Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.

  • Midterms Review

    Nov 08 2018

    The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.

  • Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out

    Nov 07 2018

    President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.

  • Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative

    Nov 07 2018

    Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.

  • A Guide To Election Night

    Nov 06 2018

    We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.

  • The Final Countdown

    Nov 05 2018

    The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump's appeals on immigration will help Republicans.

  • How To Judge The Model's Performance

    Nov 02 2018

    In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.

  • Debating Our Own House Forecast

    Nov 01 2018

    We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.

  • Debating Our Own Senate Forecast

    Oct 31 2018

    We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.

  • The Most Important Races You Aren't Watching

    Oct 30 2018

    There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.

  • Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?

    Oct 29 2018

    The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.

  • The Early Vote Is Not In The Model

    Oct 26 2018

    In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.

  • The Campaign Ads Dominating 2018

    Oct 25 2018

    The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties' priorities.

  • How Voting Laws Will Affect The Midterms

    Oct 23 2018

    New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.

  • These Fundraising Numbers Are Unprecedented

    Oct 22 2018

    House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.

  • The Governors Forecast Is Live

    Oct 17 2018

    In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.

  • Early Indicators Of Who Is Running In 2020

    Oct 15 2018

    The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.

  • The Forecasts Are Diverging

    Oct 11 2018

    In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.

  • Live: Are Any Of The Post-Kavanaugh Narratives Right?

    Oct 09 2018

    At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.

  • Collins Says Yes On Kavanaugh

    Oct 05 2018

    The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh's all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.

  • The Ultimate Romney-Clinton District

    Oct 03 2018

    Galen Druke heads to a traditionally Republican district in Houston, Texas that swung 23 points towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is rated as a toss-up in 2018.

  • We Have New Polling On Kavanaugh

    Oct 01 2018

    The first batch of polls is out since Judge Brett Kavanaugh's testimony last Thursday. The crew discusses how the public is reacting.

  • Flake News!

    Sep 28 2018

    The podcast crew reacts to Senator Jeff Flake's call for an FBI investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh.

  • The Ford/Kavanaugh Testimony

    Sep 28 2018

    The podcast team reacts to the Judiciary Committee testimony of Professor Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.

  • Fire Rosenstein? Withdraw Kavanaugh? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    Sep 25 2018

    In a special live taping of the podcast, the crew discusses the future of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

  • The Model Is 7,000 Lines Of Code

    Sep 20 2018

    In this installment of Model Talk Nate discusses how unexpected events affect the model and answers listener questions about how long the model is and where it's stored.

  • Kavanaugh's Confirmation Is In Trouble

    Sep 17 2018

    The crew discusses the political response to an accusation from a woman who says Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in high school.

  • Emergency Podcast: Manafort Is Cooperating

    Sep 14 2018

    President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts to the news.

  • The Senate Forecast Is Live

    Sep 12 2018

    In the latest installment of Model Talk, Nate discusses why the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast favors Republicans.

  • Stop Catering To Idiots

    Sep 10 2018

    The crew reacts to the latest news about the inner workings of the Trump administration and explores the Upshot's foray into live polling.

  • How Useful Are SCOTUS Confirmation Hearings?

    Sep 07 2018

    After three days of Supreme Court nomination hearings, Perry Bacon Jr. and Oliver Roeder discuss what, if anything, they learned.

  • Is The Path Of Trump's Presidency Set?

    Sep 03 2018

    The crew is using the Labor Day holiday to take a step back from the news of the moment and assess how President Trump is faring after more than a year and a half in office.

  • Debugging The Model

    Aug 30 2018

    In this episode of Model Talk, Nate talks about debugging the model and answers questions from listeners, including one surprise listener by the name of Rush.

  • Impeachment: A FiveThirtyEight Debate

    Aug 27 2018

    The crew discusses the legacy of Senator John McCain. They also debate how Democrats should approach the question of impeachment.

  • What Does It Mean To Be 'Electable'?

    Aug 23 2018

    Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari discuss what "electability" means and consider whether it's a useful term for assessing candidates.

  • Emergency Podcast: Cohen + Manafort = !!!

    Aug 21 2018

    The podcast crew reacts to a guilty plea from Michael Cohen and a guilty verdict for Paul Manafort on the same day.

  • Democrats Are Competing Everywhere

    Aug 20 2018

    The crew discusses their takeaways from the new 2018 House forecast. They also sort through new data on how Trump voters' views have evolved or not since 2016.

  • The Upset Of The Season

    Jun 28 2018

    In the heat of the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, this podcast might have been lost forever. The team reacts to a major primary upset in New York's 14th district.

  • Emergency Podcast: Kennedy Is Retiring

    Jun 27 2018

    The podcast team reacts to the news that Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court.

  • Is Immigration The Issue of 2018?

    Jun 25 2018

    The team discusses the continuing fallout from Trump's policy of separating families that illegally cross the border. They also ask why there aren't more GOP women in Congress

  • Bonus Episode: Masculinity In 2018

    Jun 21 2018

    FiveThirtyEight partnered with WNYC's Death, Sex & Money podcast to do a survey asking what men think about being a man in 2018.

  • The Immigration Flashpoint

    Jun 18 2018

    The team discusses the separation of children and parents at the border and the role that immigration plays in the GOP. They also react to a SCOTUS decision on gerrymandering.

  • Emergency Podcast: The Inspector General's Report

    Jun 14 2018

    Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss the political implications of the inspector general's report on the 2016 FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton.

  • The Super Tuesday Of The Midterms

    Jun 04 2018

    Eight states are holding primary contests on Tuesday, including California, where the top two primary system could create some interesting results.

  • The Polls Are All Right

    May 31 2018

    FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster ratings for the first time since before the 2016 election. Nate and Galen discuss the state of polling and what to expect in 2018.

  • Things Look Less Good For Dems

    May 29 2018

    Democrats' advantage in generic ballot polling has declined in recent months. The crew debates what that tells us about their prospects this fall.

  • A Year Of Mueller

    May 21 2018

    The team takes stock of where the Mueller probe stands one year on. They also discuss Democrats' debate over reducing the role of superdelegates in presidential primaries.

  • A Democratic Squabble In Texas

    May 17 2018

    Does the fault line in the Democratic Party really run through Texas's 7th district? Clare and Galen compare the candidates in what's become a contentious Democratic primary.

  • Partisanship Is A Hell Of A Drug

    May 14 2018

    The team discusses partisanship in the first of a series of conversations about the midterms called "Priors." They also look at Americans' views of Trump's foreign policy.

  • Special Episode: Chasing Hillary

    May 10 2018

    Nate Silver and Clare Malone sit down Amy Chozick, the author of "Chasing Hillary: Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling."

  • Primary Season Begins

    May 07 2018

    Tuesday is the fist big primary Election Day of the 2018 midterms. The team discusses the most important races to watch. They also debate whether Trump deserves more credit.

  • The Giuliani Rampage Podcast

    May 04 2018

    President Trump's new lawyer Rudy Giuliani contradicted the president about payments to Stormy Daniels during a two-day long media rampage.

  • How Much Trouble Is Manchin In?

    Apr 30 2018

    Joe Manchin is one of ten Democrats defending a Senate seat in a state Trump won. The team looks at the Republicans vying to challenge him in West Virginia.

  • About That Texas Poll

    Apr 23 2018

    The team debates whether the Texas Senate race is actually winnable for the Democrat. They also discuss the special election in Arizona and how to responsibly cover polls.

  • The Comey Episode

    Apr 16 2018

    The crew debates the significance of former FBI Director James Comey's new tell-all book. They also look at public opinion of the recent U.S. airstrikes in Syria.

  • Emergency Podcast: Ryan To Retire

    Apr 11 2018

    House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Wednesday morning that he will not seek reelection in 2018. Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari react to the news.

  • The Nightmare Midterms Hack

    Apr 10 2018

    The team describes what a nightmare elections hack scenario would look like, based on reporting by Clare Malone. They also discuss the continuous scandals at the EPA.

  • Emergency Podcast: FBI Raids Trump's Lawyer's Office

    Apr 09 2018

    The podcast crew responds to the news that the FBI raided the office and home of President Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen.

  • FiveThirtyEight Family Feud

    Apr 03 2018

    The team plays a round of "FiveThirtyEight Family Feud" to help determine Trump's strengths and weakness. They also debate the merits of census's new citizenship question.

  • Special: Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, and Political Data

    Mar 29 2018

    Clare Malone and Jody Avirgan speak with Daniel Kreiss of UNC about the use of FB data in the 2016 election -- and beyond. Listen to the history of data and politics series here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/political-data

  • How Do We Cover Stormy Daniels?

    Mar 26 2018

    The team debates how to cover the alleged coverup and affair between Stormy Daniels and President Trump. They also dive into new data showing Americans are as divided as ever.

  • What If Trump Fired Mueller?

    Mar 19 2018

    President Trump tore into the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller this weekend. The team discusses what would happen if Trump fired Mueller.

  • The GOP Should Be Freaking Out, PA Edition

    Mar 14 2018

    Democrat Conor Lamb looks poised to win in a Pennsylvania district that voted for Trump by 20 points. The podcast team discusses what the results mean for the midterms.

  • Emergency Podcast: Rexit

    Mar 13 2018

    President Trump announced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's firing on twitter Tuesday morning. The podcast team reacts.

  • The Most Special Special Election Yet

    Mar 12 2018

    The crew discusses the candidates and environment heading into Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district - a district that Trump won by 20 points.

  • Does Trump's Mood Matter?

    Mar 05 2018

    The team makes sense of a week of chaos at the White House and what it says about Trump's decision making. They also discuss how academics rank presidential achievement.

  • A Turning Point On Guns?

    Feb 26 2018

    The team discusses whether the high school shooting in Parkland, FL is a turning point in the gun debate. They also play a round of political "would you rather?"

  • The Gun Debate

    Feb 20 2018

    This episode is dedicated entirely to discussing the gun debate. The crew looks at public opinion, political strategy and what is likely to happen next.

  • Emergency Podcast: 13 Russians Indicted

    Feb 16 2018

    The team responds to news that 13 Russians and 3 companies have been indicted in the special counsel investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

  • What's So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?

    Feb 12 2018

    The crew debates why Nancy Pelosi is such a target for Republican attacks and whether those attacks will actually move voters.

  • Has Trump Remade The GOP?

    Feb 05 2018

    The team debates whether the Nunes memo was much ado about nothing, and discusses Trump's effect on the Republican Party.

  • Which Version Of Trump's Presidency Is Happening?

    Jan 29 2018

    One year in, the day before Trump's first (proper) State Of The Union address, we revisit the "14 Paths" and discuss what version of President Trump we ended up with.

  • The Three-Day Shutdown

    Jan 22 2018

    The Senate voted to end the shutdown less than three days after it began. Did Democrats get what they wanted? The team also discusses the uptick in Trump's approval rating.

  • Emergency Podcast - Government Shutdown

    Jan 19 2018

    The politics team discusses the repercussions of the government shutdown after the Senate failed to pass a stopgap spending bill Friday night.

  • Immigration Showdown

    Jan 16 2018

    With a government shutdown looming, Democrats and Republicans have hit an impasse over immigration policy. The crew discusses what's at stake.

  • The Gerrymandering Project: Conclusion

    Jan 11 2018

    In the final episode of our gerrymandering series we consider some more radical electoral reforms and look back on the lessons we've learned.

  • Oprah, Palace Intrigue And Nuclear War

    Jan 08 2018

    The crew discusses the possibility of an Oprah presidential run, a new book about the Trump White House and Trump's behavior towards North Korea.

  • The Gerrymandering Project: California

    Jan 04 2018

    California took significant steps to try to rid redistricting of partisan politics. Politicians still sought to influence the process. Did they succeed?

  • Our Political Journalism Resolutions

    Jan 01 2018

    2018 is here! We discuss our political reporting resolutions -- both for ourselves and the media in general -- as we head into a big new year.

  • Who's Running In 2020?

    Dec 25 2017

    The crew throws caution to the wind and debates which Democrats are best positioned to do well in the 2020 presidential primary.

  • The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona

    Dec 21 2017

    The number of competitive congressional elections has fallen dramatically in recent decades. Arizona tried to combat that trend.

  • Lessons From Alabama

    Dec 18 2017

    The politics team sorts through the hot takes from last week's Senate election in Alabama. They also discuss the political implications of the proposed GOP tax overhaul.

  • The Gerrymandering Project: North Carolina

    Dec 14 2017

    A decades long debate has raged over how to ensure minorities have a voice in America. In the third installment of our series, we look at racial gerrymandering.

  • Emergency Podcast: Doug Jones Wins

    Dec 12 2017

    Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama in a quarter century. The team discusses the factors that converged to make that possible.

  • The Alabama Election Is Here

    Dec 11 2017

    The Alabama special Senate election is Tuesday. The polls have varied significantly in an election where turnout is hard to predict. The team weighs in on what to expect.

  • The Gerrymandering Project: Wisconsin

    Dec 07 2017

    Is partisan gerrymandering illegal? In the second installment of our gerrymandering series we look at a Supreme Court case that could reshape how we draw political boundaries.

  • Are Taxes A Pyrrhic Victory?

    Dec 04 2017

    The Senate passed a tax overhaul bill Friday night. The team weighs the political and policy implications and follow up on the fallout from Michael Flynn's guilty plea.

  • Emergency Podcast: Flynn Flips

    Dec 01 2017

    A quick conversation in reaction the big news that Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations with Russian officials.

  • The Gerrymandering Project: Intro

    Nov 30 2017

    What is gerrymandering? This is the first episode in a six-part series exploring the effects of gerrymandering and how reformers hope to change the system.

  • Congress's Broken Culture

    Nov 27 2017

    Lawmakers return to Washington under pressure to confront sexual harassment by their own ranks. The podcast team also looks at the latest in the Alabama special Senate race.

  • Alabama Is Tied

    Nov 20 2017

    The Alabama special Senate race is now tied, after numerous accusation that Republican Roy Moore molested and assaulted teenage girls. The podcast team reacts.

  • Franken Is Accused Of Harassment

    Nov 16 2017

    Leeann Tweeden accused Senator Al Franken of kissing and groping her without her consent while on a USO tour in the Middle East. The podcast team reacts.

  • Alabama's Senate Race

    Nov 13 2017

    Five women have accused Roy Moore, Republican candidate for Senate from Alabama, of sexual misconduct. The team assesses how this will affect the final month of the campaign.

  • 2016 Anniversary Talk

    Nov 08 2017

    A year after the 2016 election, Nate & Micah sit down to discuss what it was like to cover the race - from the mistakes FiveThirtyEight made to the emotions of the final weeks

  • A Good Night For Democrats

    Nov 07 2017

    The podcast team responds to strong showing by Democrats across the board on Election Day 2017

  • Election Day 2017

    Nov 06 2017

    Will Democrats begin their comeback on Election Day 2017? The podcast team shares advice on which races to watch and what the margins mean.

  • Sexual Harassment In Media And Politics

    Nov 04 2017

    Major figures in political journalism are alleged to have been serial sexual harassers. What does it mean to have those men in charge of the way political news gets made?

  • Mueller's First Strike

    Oct 30 2017

    Ex-chairman of the Trump campaign Paul Manafort was indicted along with two other campaign aides as part of Bob Mueller's special investigation. The team weighs in.

  • Emergency Podcast - Flake Is Out

    Oct 24 2017

    GOP Sen. Jeff Flake from Arizona, a repeated Trump critic, announced he will not seek reelection in 2018. The podcast team discusses what that means for Arizona and the GOP.