The crew assesses Bernie Sanders's improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton's new book.
This is the third installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump's impeachment trial.
In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.
This is the second installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
The crew reacts to the candidates' performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.
The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker's decision to dropout and Tom Steyer's polling in NV and SC.
FiveThirtyEight's 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of "Model Talk" Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.
This is the first installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.
The team discusses the political implication's of President Trump's decision to kill Iran's Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.
The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.
In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.
President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.
The crew previews what to expect from this week's likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters' second choices matter in the Democratic primary.
University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.
The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight's polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump's presidency is on.
We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.
The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris's decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.
The crew looks at which candidates are racking up endorsements and whether there's a meaningful trend in favor of Biden. They also take stock of Harris's troubles on the trail
The crew discusses public opinion on impeachment and plays a Thanksgiving-inspired game.
In a late night podcast, the crew reacts to the fifth Democratic primary debate.
The crew reacts to U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland's testimony in the fourth day of public impeachment hearings.
The crew discusses what went down during the third day of public impeachment hearings.
The crew discusses the latest polling out of Iowa, showing a shakeup in the race there. They also ask why education levels are such a key factor in how people vote.
The crew reacts to the second day of public impeachment hearings.
The crew reacts to the first of many public impeachment hearings on President Trump's attempt to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival.
The New York Times's Nate Cohn joins the podcast to discuss battleground state polling, the Electoral College and the state of the Democratic primary.
FiveThirtyEight election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down the results of the 2019 elections.
The crew previews the key elections on the ballot this Election Day and debates the role healthcare is playing in Sen. Elizabeth Warren's plateauing in national polls.
Rep. Tim Ryan exited the presidential race last week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
The crew debates the savviest political strategy for Senate Republicans on the issue of impeachment. They also discuss the death of al-Baghdadi and disagreement in the polls.
The crew discusses the significance of U.S. envoy to Ukraine William Taylor's testimony. He claimed Trump made military aid contingent on politically-motivated investigations.
The podcast crew discusses the politics of Medicare for All in the Democratic primary. They also look at the latest impeachment polling.
The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.
The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.
Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.
The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties' strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.
New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.
The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.
It's only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump's Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower's complaint and more.
The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi's decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How'd we get here, and what might come next?
The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.
Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he'd record a podcast and he obliged.
The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump's electoral strengths and weaknesses.
The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.
The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.
A North Carolina court panel threw out the state's legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.
The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?
Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.
The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.
FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.
The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what's changed since the El Paso shooting.
International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump's trade war with China.
Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.
The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.
The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.
The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.
The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.
After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.
The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.
The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state's political trends and what they mean for 2020.
The podcast team discusses Trump's tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.
Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash's decision to leave the GOP.
The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.
The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.
The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.
The crew re-assesses the significance of "lanes" in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump's Iran strategy.
Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.
As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.
Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, "What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election."
The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren's breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.
Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats' efforts to make D.C. the nation's 51st state.
The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.
University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.
The crew discusses whether last week's back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.
The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.
The politics team examines Bill de Blasio's theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It's part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.
The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.
In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.
The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.
Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he'd characterized the report's findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.
The crew discusses the Democratic Party's reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don't have more crossover support.
Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.
The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.
The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.
As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.
Our "Model Talk" series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight's forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!
The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.
Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.
Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?
Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.
The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.
In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.
In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play "Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?"
The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.
David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British "Talking Politics" podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.
Former El Paso congressman Beto O'Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win -- or lose -- the Democratic primary.
The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?
The podcast crew discusses the latest candidate announcements, whether party endorsements matter, and the merits of the Electoral College.
The podcast team reacts to a day of testimony from President Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.
The podcast crew discusses absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina and the threat of a primary challenge to Trump. They also play a round of "Guess What Americans Think."
The word is that Mueller will wrap up his investigation next week. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux shares an overview of the legal troubles that will continue to follow the president.
Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for president. The team describes both his path to success and failure in the primary. They also follow up on Trump's emergency declaration.
The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox's Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.
The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.
Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state -- the governor, lt. governor and AG.
Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker's path to the nomination.
What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.
In light of Howard Schultz's possible presidential run as a "centrist independent," the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.
The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders -- Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.
In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone's indictment.
The crew analyzes what Harris's path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller's statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.
In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver's audio may be a bit unclear. He says, "It's not that logical because, number one, a lot of Democrats are concerned about senators who allegedly grope people."
The crew discusses what Julian Castro's path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.
Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.
The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning -- and losing -- the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.
In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.
The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.
In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's departure and the looming government shutdown.
Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently
Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.
We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump's appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.
There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties' priorities.
New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.
House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.
The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.
At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.
The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh's all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.
Galen Druke heads to a traditionally Republican district in Houston, Texas that swung 23 points towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is rated as a toss-up in 2018.
The first batch of polls is out since Judge Brett Kavanaugh's testimony last Thursday. The crew discusses how the public is reacting.
The podcast crew reacts to Senator Jeff Flake's call for an FBI investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh.
The podcast team reacts to the Judiciary Committee testimony of Professor Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
In a special live taping of the podcast, the crew discusses the future of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
In this installment of Model Talk Nate discusses how unexpected events affect the model and answers listener questions about how long the model is and where it's stored.
The crew discusses the political response to an accusation from a woman who says Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in high school.
President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts to the news.
In the latest installment of Model Talk, Nate discusses why the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast favors Republicans.
The crew reacts to the latest news about the inner workings of the Trump administration and explores the Upshot's foray into live polling.
After three days of Supreme Court nomination hearings, Perry Bacon Jr. and Oliver Roeder discuss what, if anything, they learned.
The crew is using the Labor Day holiday to take a step back from the news of the moment and assess how President Trump is faring after more than a year and a half in office.
In this episode of Model Talk, Nate talks about debugging the model and answers questions from listeners, including one surprise listener by the name of Rush.
The crew discusses the legacy of Senator John McCain. They also debate how Democrats should approach the question of impeachment.
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari discuss what "electability" means and consider whether it's a useful term for assessing candidates.
The podcast crew reacts to a guilty plea from Michael Cohen and a guilty verdict for Paul Manafort on the same day.
The crew discusses their takeaways from the new 2018 House forecast. They also sort through new data on how Trump voters' views have evolved or not since 2016.
In the heat of the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, this podcast might have been lost forever. The team reacts to a major primary upset in New York's 14th district.
The podcast team reacts to the news that Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court.
The team discusses the continuing fallout from Trump's policy of separating families that illegally cross the border. They also ask why there aren't more GOP women in Congress
FiveThirtyEight partnered with WNYC's Death, Sex & Money podcast to do a survey asking what men think about being a man in 2018.
The team discusses the separation of children and parents at the border and the role that immigration plays in the GOP. They also react to a SCOTUS decision on gerrymandering.
Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss the political implications of the inspector general's report on the 2016 FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton.
Eight states are holding primary contests on Tuesday, including California, where the top two primary system could create some interesting results.
FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster ratings for the first time since before the 2016 election. Nate and Galen discuss the state of polling and what to expect in 2018.
Democrats' advantage in generic ballot polling has declined in recent months. The crew debates what that tells us about their prospects this fall.
The team takes stock of where the Mueller probe stands one year on. They also discuss Democrats' debate over reducing the role of superdelegates in presidential primaries.
Does the fault line in the Democratic Party really run through Texas's 7th district? Clare and Galen compare the candidates in what's become a contentious Democratic primary.
The team discusses partisanship in the first of a series of conversations about the midterms called "Priors." They also look at Americans' views of Trump's foreign policy.
Nate Silver and Clare Malone sit down Amy Chozick, the author of "Chasing Hillary: Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling."
Tuesday is the fist big primary Election Day of the 2018 midterms. The team discusses the most important races to watch. They also debate whether Trump deserves more credit.
President Trump's new lawyer Rudy Giuliani contradicted the president about payments to Stormy Daniels during a two-day long media rampage.
Joe Manchin is one of ten Democrats defending a Senate seat in a state Trump won. The team looks at the Republicans vying to challenge him in West Virginia.
The team debates whether the Texas Senate race is actually winnable for the Democrat. They also discuss the special election in Arizona and how to responsibly cover polls.
The crew debates the significance of former FBI Director James Comey's new tell-all book. They also look at public opinion of the recent U.S. airstrikes in Syria.
House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Wednesday morning that he will not seek reelection in 2018. Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari react to the news.
The team describes what a nightmare elections hack scenario would look like, based on reporting by Clare Malone. They also discuss the continuous scandals at the EPA.
The podcast crew responds to the news that the FBI raided the office and home of President Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen.
The team plays a round of "FiveThirtyEight Family Feud" to help determine Trump's strengths and weakness. They also debate the merits of census's new citizenship question.
Clare Malone and Jody Avirgan speak with Daniel Kreiss of UNC about the use of FB data in the 2016 election -- and beyond. Listen to the history of data and politics series here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/political-data
The team debates how to cover the alleged coverup and affair between Stormy Daniels and President Trump. They also dive into new data showing Americans are as divided as ever.
President Trump tore into the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller this weekend. The team discusses what would happen if Trump fired Mueller.
Democrat Conor Lamb looks poised to win in a Pennsylvania district that voted for Trump by 20 points. The podcast team discusses what the results mean for the midterms.
President Trump announced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's firing on twitter Tuesday morning. The podcast team reacts.
The crew discusses the candidates and environment heading into Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district - a district that Trump won by 20 points.
The team makes sense of a week of chaos at the White House and what it says about Trump's decision making. They also discuss how academics rank presidential achievement.